Have been more than I thought. In this post on Brin and Vinge's books I thought that "softscreen" or roll up computer screens would not come to pass within 20 years. It looks like it may - Roll-up Laptop Screens? New 'Morphing' Structures Have Many Applications.
Another interface that I did not mention in the post was a head device in Brin's book that was used to interface with the computer - not quite mind reading but almost. This too appears to be coming to pass but may die without a "killer" app. I think it needs to develop into a "mind-reading" software similar to voice recognition without the voice.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Blue van Meer vs Lee Fiora
Lee Fiora:
I was one of the last to leave the classroom and when I got into the hall, Darden and Aspeth and Dede were walking a few feet in front of me. I slowed down, letting the space between us widen. They all laughed as they disappeared into the stairwell, and I waited for the door to shut all the way behind them before I opened it again.
Blue Van Meer:
... implacable self-possession can be obtained by all, not by pretending to look absorbed in what's clearly a blank spiral notebook; not by trying to convince yourself you're an undiscovered rock star, movie star, top model, tycoon, Bond, Bond Girl, Queen Elizabeth, Elizabeth Bennett or Eliza Doolittle at the Ambassador's Ball; not by imagining you're a long-lost member of the Vanderbilt family, nor by tilting your chin fifteen to forty-five degrees and pretending to be Grace Kelly in her prime. These methods work in theory, but in practice they slip away, so one is left hideously naked with nothing but the stained sheet of self-confidence around one's feet.
Instead, stately dignity can be possessed by all, in two ways:
1. Diverting the mind with a book or play
2. Reciting Keats
I discovered this technique early in life, in second grade at Sparta Elementary.
I was one of the last to leave the classroom and when I got into the hall, Darden and Aspeth and Dede were walking a few feet in front of me. I slowed down, letting the space between us widen. They all laughed as they disappeared into the stairwell, and I waited for the door to shut all the way behind them before I opened it again.
Blue Van Meer:
... implacable self-possession can be obtained by all, not by pretending to look absorbed in what's clearly a blank spiral notebook; not by trying to convince yourself you're an undiscovered rock star, movie star, top model, tycoon, Bond, Bond Girl, Queen Elizabeth, Elizabeth Bennett or Eliza Doolittle at the Ambassador's Ball; not by imagining you're a long-lost member of the Vanderbilt family, nor by tilting your chin fifteen to forty-five degrees and pretending to be Grace Kelly in her prime. These methods work in theory, but in practice they slip away, so one is left hideously naked with nothing but the stained sheet of self-confidence around one's feet.
Instead, stately dignity can be possessed by all, in two ways:
1. Diverting the mind with a book or play
2. Reciting Keats
I discovered this technique early in life, in second grade at Sparta Elementary.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Menu cost of beer
In the past month I've watched the price of a six-pack of Sam Adams go from $7.99 to $8.49 to $8.99. Perhaps the $7.99 was a sale price.
Geothermal Heat Pumps
Thinking for some now about the feasibility of geothermal heat pump for our house and have decided that with our small plot of land it probably isn't feasible. Apart from that there is the cost:
As a rule of thumb, a geothermal heat pump system costs about $2,500 per ton of capacity. The typically sized home would use a three-ton unit costing roughly $7,500. That initial cost is nearly twice the price of a regular heat pump system that would probably cost about $4,000, with air conditioning.
You have to add the cost of drilling to this total amount. That will depend on whether your system will drill vertically deep underground or will put the loops in a horizontal fashion a shorter distance below ground. The cost of drilling can run anywhere from $10,000 to $30,000.
When energy costs are figured in, however, geothermal systems are probably cheaper. If the extra price for the geothermal system is included in an energy efficiency mortgage, the homeowner could have a positive cash flow from the beginning. The extra $3,500 cost of the more efficient system may add $30 per month to each mortgage payment - an amount more than offset by the savings on the homeowner's utility bill.
Added to an already built home, an efficient geothermal system saves enough on utility bills that the investment can be recouped in two to ten years.
The technical limitations for us seem to be:
Horizontal Ground Closed Loops
This type is usually the most cost effective when trenches are easy to dig and the size of the yard is adequate. Workers use trenchers or backhoes to dig the trenches three to six feet below the ground in which they lay a series of parallel plastic pipes. They backfill the trench, taking care not to allow sharp rocks or debris to damage the pipes. Fluid runs through the pipe in a closed system. A typical horizontal loop will be 400 to 600 feet long for each ton of heating and cooling.
Vertical Ground Closed Loops
This type of loop is used where there is little yard space, when surface rocks make digging impractical, or when you want to disrupt the landscape as little as possible. Vertical holes 150 to 450 feet deep - much like wells - are bored in the ground, and a single loop of pipe with a U-bend at the bottom is inserted before the hole is backfilled. Each vertical pipe is then connected to a horizontal underground pipe that carries fluid in a closed system to and from the indoor exchange unit. Vertical loops are generally more expensive to install, but require less piping than horizontal loops because the Earth's temperature is more stable farther below the surface.
There just isn't enough yard to do horizontal and I'm afraid of what we'd find if we start drilling that deep. Most definitely not oil.
It seems like there might be a case to be made here for neighbors pooling their yards together to share the cost of installation and thereby the savings from geothermal heating and cooling. I'm trying to think why I would not enter into such an agreement if my neighbor were to propose it and I guess there might be some free riding concerns: Even though we may split the cost equally we may not use it equally? I don't know. Some market failure here that perhaps the new administration could work to change (or part of fiscal stimulus?). Yes, I am still waiting for change to happen.
As a rule of thumb, a geothermal heat pump system costs about $2,500 per ton of capacity. The typically sized home would use a three-ton unit costing roughly $7,500. That initial cost is nearly twice the price of a regular heat pump system that would probably cost about $4,000, with air conditioning.
You have to add the cost of drilling to this total amount. That will depend on whether your system will drill vertically deep underground or will put the loops in a horizontal fashion a shorter distance below ground. The cost of drilling can run anywhere from $10,000 to $30,000.
When energy costs are figured in, however, geothermal systems are probably cheaper. If the extra price for the geothermal system is included in an energy efficiency mortgage, the homeowner could have a positive cash flow from the beginning. The extra $3,500 cost of the more efficient system may add $30 per month to each mortgage payment - an amount more than offset by the savings on the homeowner's utility bill.
Added to an already built home, an efficient geothermal system saves enough on utility bills that the investment can be recouped in two to ten years.
The technical limitations for us seem to be:
Horizontal Ground Closed Loops
This type is usually the most cost effective when trenches are easy to dig and the size of the yard is adequate. Workers use trenchers or backhoes to dig the trenches three to six feet below the ground in which they lay a series of parallel plastic pipes. They backfill the trench, taking care not to allow sharp rocks or debris to damage the pipes. Fluid runs through the pipe in a closed system. A typical horizontal loop will be 400 to 600 feet long for each ton of heating and cooling.
Vertical Ground Closed Loops
This type of loop is used where there is little yard space, when surface rocks make digging impractical, or when you want to disrupt the landscape as little as possible. Vertical holes 150 to 450 feet deep - much like wells - are bored in the ground, and a single loop of pipe with a U-bend at the bottom is inserted before the hole is backfilled. Each vertical pipe is then connected to a horizontal underground pipe that carries fluid in a closed system to and from the indoor exchange unit. Vertical loops are generally more expensive to install, but require less piping than horizontal loops because the Earth's temperature is more stable farther below the surface.
There just isn't enough yard to do horizontal and I'm afraid of what we'd find if we start drilling that deep. Most definitely not oil.
It seems like there might be a case to be made here for neighbors pooling their yards together to share the cost of installation and thereby the savings from geothermal heating and cooling. I'm trying to think why I would not enter into such an agreement if my neighbor were to propose it and I guess there might be some free riding concerns: Even though we may split the cost equally we may not use it equally? I don't know. Some market failure here that perhaps the new administration could work to change (or part of fiscal stimulus?). Yes, I am still waiting for change to happen.
Stock out annoyances
In the process of re-insulating our attic I had to make numerous trips to Lowes and Home Depot. Invariably one or the other would stock-out of what I needed: 16-inch wide batts. It's a little annoying and exasperating: I've experienced it in grocery stores - Whole Foods or Giant or Safeway, it doesn't matter. Is lean inventories having an adverse effects on sales? It's hard to say but I did come across an excellent Economist Survey on logistics.
... supply chains harbour dangers too, and managing risk is becoming a pressing issue. A number of alarm bells have started ringing. Most firms have been organising their logistics to make themselves leaner. Many now carry little or no inventory to save money. Indeed, sometimes their entire inventory consists of what is moving from the factory directly to the consumer in the back of a truck or an aeroplane. If something goes wrong—and it often does—business will quickly grind to a halt.
From the concluding article When the Chain Breaks:
Britain's Cranfield University is running a research programme into the fragility of supply chains, prompted by the British government after protests over high fuel costs in 2000. Lorry drivers blockaded fuel-delivery depots, bringing many businesses to a standstill. “I reckon this was the first time the government realised there were such things as supply chains, and just how fragile they had become,” Mr Christopher told a recent conference.
Some people even suggest that supply chains should be regulated, a bit like public utilities, because countries have become so highly dependent on private-sector production infrastructure. Barry Lynn, author of a book on this subject, “End of the Line”, thinks that perhaps companies should be required to limit their outsourcing and use more than one supplier of essential items. In his book, he argues that globalisation and outsourcing provide only a temporary benefit to consumers because the companies that form part of supply chains will buy each other up in pursuit of ever greater efficiency, and thus lose most of their flexibility.
... supply chains harbour dangers too, and managing risk is becoming a pressing issue. A number of alarm bells have started ringing. Most firms have been organising their logistics to make themselves leaner. Many now carry little or no inventory to save money. Indeed, sometimes their entire inventory consists of what is moving from the factory directly to the consumer in the back of a truck or an aeroplane. If something goes wrong—and it often does—business will quickly grind to a halt.
From the concluding article When the Chain Breaks:
Britain's Cranfield University is running a research programme into the fragility of supply chains, prompted by the British government after protests over high fuel costs in 2000. Lorry drivers blockaded fuel-delivery depots, bringing many businesses to a standstill. “I reckon this was the first time the government realised there were such things as supply chains, and just how fragile they had become,” Mr Christopher told a recent conference.
Some people even suggest that supply chains should be regulated, a bit like public utilities, because countries have become so highly dependent on private-sector production infrastructure. Barry Lynn, author of a book on this subject, “End of the Line”, thinks that perhaps companies should be required to limit their outsourcing and use more than one supplier of essential items. In his book, he argues that globalisation and outsourcing provide only a temporary benefit to consumers because the companies that form part of supply chains will buy each other up in pursuit of ever greater efficiency, and thus lose most of their flexibility.
Attic reinsulation
Some more mundane stuff. Am in the middle of re-insulating our attic. It is partially floored so I'm just leaving the new insulation on top of the finished portion. For the unfinished portion I'm removing the old stuff and came across some old insulation called "rock wool". My first thought was: Does this stuff contain asbestos? In the end I am convinced not.
The previous owners had upgraded the insulation from rock wool to R-19 Owens Corning fiberglass insulation. DOE recommends R-49 but the highest value Home Depot and Lowes carries is R-38. I figure if I put the R-38 down and leave the existing R-19 in place it should be enough.
Unfortunately, it does not appear to made any measurable difference in temperature. Our upstairs tends to be colder in the winter and vice versa in the summer. We either need larger or more vents upstairs I think.
The previous owners had upgraded the insulation from rock wool to R-19 Owens Corning fiberglass insulation. DOE recommends R-49 but the highest value Home Depot and Lowes carries is R-38. I figure if I put the R-38 down and leave the existing R-19 in place it should be enough.
Unfortunately, it does not appear to made any measurable difference in temperature. Our upstairs tends to be colder in the winter and vice versa in the summer. We either need larger or more vents upstairs I think.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Looking at Malaysia through American eyes
Bryan Caplan visited Malaysia:
I only spent three days in Malaysia. I suspect that rural areas would be less moderate than major cities like KL and Malacca. Nevertheless, I think that most Westerners would be shocked by the pluralism and tolerance that I saw.
A commenter note:
Re anti-Semitism, it is actually quite blatant in Malaysia. It's nowhere as public as you might expect, but that's primarily because there are hardly any Jews in the country, so hardly anything spurs a discussion of them. However, the leader of the opposition is often frequently tarred by the ruling party with a number of slurs which should give you an idea of Malaysian taboos - he has been called a homosexual, a Jew-lover, a pawn of the CIA, a pawn of the Chinese/Indians, and a Zionist. While racism is actually pretty blatant throughout Malaysian society, it's so blatant towards the Jews that it is taken for granted. Members of Parliament have frequently raised the issue of the opposition leader's fraternizing with American Jews in Parliament, arguing it clearly disqualifies him from any leadership position. The closest Malaysians have come to a political consensus is that Zionism (and by extension Jews/Judaism) is bad, and that the Iraq war was unjust. (And you'll find plenty of people willing to pin the Iraq war on the Jews/Zionists too.) Zhuge Liang is spot on re the Protocols of Zion, and as a Malaysian, I'm really quite appalled that they are such a staple in our bookstores. The trendy malls in the Kuala Lumpur city centre probably don't stock them, but most bookshops in the suburbs - even small niche operations - carry them.
When we were there last (2007), all I saw were divisions, divisions, divisions - Muslim/Chinese/Indian divisions.
I only spent three days in Malaysia. I suspect that rural areas would be less moderate than major cities like KL and Malacca. Nevertheless, I think that most Westerners would be shocked by the pluralism and tolerance that I saw.
A commenter note:
Re anti-Semitism, it is actually quite blatant in Malaysia. It's nowhere as public as you might expect, but that's primarily because there are hardly any Jews in the country, so hardly anything spurs a discussion of them. However, the leader of the opposition is often frequently tarred by the ruling party with a number of slurs which should give you an idea of Malaysian taboos - he has been called a homosexual, a Jew-lover, a pawn of the CIA, a pawn of the Chinese/Indians, and a Zionist. While racism is actually pretty blatant throughout Malaysian society, it's so blatant towards the Jews that it is taken for granted. Members of Parliament have frequently raised the issue of the opposition leader's fraternizing with American Jews in Parliament, arguing it clearly disqualifies him from any leadership position. The closest Malaysians have come to a political consensus is that Zionism (and by extension Jews/Judaism) is bad, and that the Iraq war was unjust. (And you'll find plenty of people willing to pin the Iraq war on the Jews/Zionists too.) Zhuge Liang is spot on re the Protocols of Zion, and as a Malaysian, I'm really quite appalled that they are such a staple in our bookstores. The trendy malls in the Kuala Lumpur city centre probably don't stock them, but most bookshops in the suburbs - even small niche operations - carry them.
When we were there last (2007), all I saw were divisions, divisions, divisions - Muslim/Chinese/Indian divisions.
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