This is not really a review but just a record of my impressions. It was a little surreal to read a conservative judge's review of movies like Armageddon, The Day After Tomorrow, and Matrix. Surreal but pleasant. It was also a little surreal to hear him discuss the possibility of a strangelet disaster and gray goo. Ultimately, his view of catastrophe (complete annihilation of the human race or something of the same magnitude) is not the same as my idea of a catastrophe (e.g. Katrina, earthquakes) possibly because these are already written somewhere else. However, he sometimes switches between human extinction with just extinction of Americans and its a little confusing and inconsistent.
He does take on issues such as abrupt climate change rather than gradual climate change which he views not as a catastrophe but something that we can adapt to. If I'm reading him correctly he advocates that we take action now even though the probability of an abrupt climate change is remote (small probabilities of extremely large losses). So he is not in the same camp as those who propose cap-and-trade and/or small hikes on gasoline. He proposes a large tax on emissions rather than on fossil fuels to induce innovation in cleaner fuels and carbon sequestration technology.
Not surprisingly, given his background, he advocates using cost benefit analysis as a guide not because it is problematic but because it is hard to put numbers on probabilities and costs. CBA in his view is a way to focus on the issues and to think through them. Rather than to dismiss CBA by saying the cost is infinite or we should not use any discounting, CBA forces a disciplined approach to whether we should undertake any measures to counter the possibility of a catastrophe or to not fund a project because of the possibility of a catastrophe. His analysis indicates that Brookhaven's Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider should not have been built. He also goes through CBA exercises with numbers as examples. This is refreshing since he also debates the value of the numbers being used as in, "I plucked this number out of the air".
This was also the first time I've read a critique on the uncertainty in measuring species and biological diversity (estimates of the number of species) and the rate of extinction. The end notes (I would have preferred footnotes) were a wealth of information on this and other disaster scenarios.
Some interesting passages:
Conservatives seize on the existence of doubt about the magnitude or causality of global warming to oppose emission controls, while liberals seize on doubt concerning the likelihood of bioterrorism to oppose limitations on granting visas to foreigners to do research on lethal pathogens. In neither case is the existence of doubt a valid ground for rejecting expert opinion. Doubt properly is an input into analysis rather than a substitute for analysis. [Fred] Singer's basic error is to suppose that the only rational response to the existence of doubt is to conduct research aimed at dispelling it. (p. 57)
Not only is there no census of species, but it is infeasible to conduct one, because many species, especially those in danger of extinction, have minute populations and restricted habitats, often in hard-to-reach places. As a result, we do not know how many of the species that are not being conserved will become extinct unless heroic mesausres are taken to preserve their habitats. If we take a strictly anthropocentric view of catastrophic risks, eschewing philosophical questions, we must ask what exactly humankind loses by extinctions. Maybe nothing beyond the charm of the unusual life forms if extinctions are considered one by one; what is worrisome from the point of view of this book is the unknown consequences of mass extinctions. (p. 65)
I stopped noting these after the first chapter (which is probably the best chapter out of the four chapter of the book). Chapter 3 on CBA is interesting as well not only in his attempt to apply it but in his simultaneous critique of his attempts.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Donors Choose
Received an interesting offer from Crate and Barrel -- it was a $25 gift certificate to donate on DonorsChoose.org. In other words, I get to give away Gordon Segal's money. I found the website interesting -- essentially a list of classroom projects from all over the country. (I'm hoping that there is some verification and auditing that these projects are authentic. It would be a shame if a few rotten apples gave this a bad image much like how embezzlement by DC Teachers Union officials have in some small way smeared the image of teachers.) I also thought that this would be an interesting impact project -- to compare outcomes of kids in classrooms who participate in DonorsChoose versus those who don't. Selection problems immediately come to mind as well as the usual problem -- what outcomes? I'm interested in something fuzzy like child well being. Are children happier in classrooms whose projects are funded (fully versus partially versus not funded versus not participating)? Do they have less behavioral problems? My quick look at projects in DC seem to indicate that these are to make classrooms easier to manage but I'm probably wrong on this.
Kindle and Sony Reader
Thoughts from someone who has neither but is tempted by both:
1. Agree with others that being able to load PDF and read them as well as DRMed books is essential.
2. Problem with PDFs is that it is a fixed size. The screens on these readers are small so looking at a PDF formatted on a letter size page is going to be difficult.
3. Paperback size is overrated but slimness is essential. I'm thinking maybe a 7"x10". This sort of overcomes the PDF problem so that there is no need to translate a PDF to a native Kindle or Sony Reader format.
4. For the $300-$400 price range I'd like something more than just a reader. The reason I don't carry my laptop around is the bootup time. I'd like something that has a dual bootup option - full operating system or a strip down version that will just quickly load the reader or even play music (e.g. MP3 or an Ipod like ability). Ability to just use a reader or to play tunes would also not suck as much battery juice.
5. So yes, I'd be willing to pay more for a small laptop that does all of the above perhaps $800-$1000.
6. Unfortunately, a laptop like the one I imagine might be heavy. Too bad.
7. I'm predicting an eventual joint venture between Apple and either Kindle/Amazon or Sony to produce something like that. (I wish!)
8. I like Kindle's bundling of Wifi and download without any additional charges. Of course, its been bundled into the price of the Kindle books.
9. Which brings me to the complaint that $9.99 per Kindle book (on average) is way too much. I'd go for something like $4.99.
1. Agree with others that being able to load PDF and read them as well as DRMed books is essential.
2. Problem with PDFs is that it is a fixed size. The screens on these readers are small so looking at a PDF formatted on a letter size page is going to be difficult.
3. Paperback size is overrated but slimness is essential. I'm thinking maybe a 7"x10". This sort of overcomes the PDF problem so that there is no need to translate a PDF to a native Kindle or Sony Reader format.
4. For the $300-$400 price range I'd like something more than just a reader. The reason I don't carry my laptop around is the bootup time. I'd like something that has a dual bootup option - full operating system or a strip down version that will just quickly load the reader or even play music (e.g. MP3 or an Ipod like ability). Ability to just use a reader or to play tunes would also not suck as much battery juice.
5. So yes, I'd be willing to pay more for a small laptop that does all of the above perhaps $800-$1000.
6. Unfortunately, a laptop like the one I imagine might be heavy. Too bad.
7. I'm predicting an eventual joint venture between Apple and either Kindle/Amazon or Sony to produce something like that. (I wish!)
8. I like Kindle's bundling of Wifi and download without any additional charges. Of course, its been bundled into the price of the Kindle books.
9. Which brings me to the complaint that $9.99 per Kindle book (on average) is way too much. I'd go for something like $4.99.
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Can data dampen anti-immigrant feelings?
Another example of the power of anecdotes versus data. I don't hold out much hope for data.
Even in England, where the attitude towards immigration and assimilation is more relaxed than in France, the terrorist attacks of recent years gave rise to alarming observations that children of Pakistani and Bangladeshi families weren’t able to adapt to British society. This was made particularly salient by the video message of one of the July 7 London bombers (British-born but whose parents were from Pakistan), which said “your democratically elected governments continuously perpetuate atrocities against my people and your support of them makes you directly responsible, just as I am directly responsible for protecting and avenging my Muslim brothers and sisters”, clearly contrasting “we” and “you”.
But aside from a few anecdotes and these dramatic, but isolated examples, it has never been shown that young Muslims stay foreign to the culture of their adopted country more than any other immigrants.
Earlier in the article,
Immigration stirs up strong enough fears to justify questionable measures of protection against it – from arrests at the doors of French schools to the border wall that separates the USA from Mexico. ... Economic research suggests that the intensity of these reactions seems completely disproportionate to immigration’s real economic impact on the local population. Economic reasons don’t seem to provide a sufficient explanation for the persistent distrust of immigrants among the native population. (emphasis mine).
Even in England, where the attitude towards immigration and assimilation is more relaxed than in France, the terrorist attacks of recent years gave rise to alarming observations that children of Pakistani and Bangladeshi families weren’t able to adapt to British society. This was made particularly salient by the video message of one of the July 7 London bombers (British-born but whose parents were from Pakistan), which said “your democratically elected governments continuously perpetuate atrocities against my people and your support of them makes you directly responsible, just as I am directly responsible for protecting and avenging my Muslim brothers and sisters”, clearly contrasting “we” and “you”.
But aside from a few anecdotes and these dramatic, but isolated examples, it has never been shown that young Muslims stay foreign to the culture of their adopted country more than any other immigrants.
Earlier in the article,
Immigration stirs up strong enough fears to justify questionable measures of protection against it – from arrests at the doors of French schools to the border wall that separates the USA from Mexico. ... Economic research suggests that the intensity of these reactions seems completely disproportionate to immigration’s real economic impact on the local population. Economic reasons don’t seem to provide a sufficient explanation for the persistent distrust of immigrants among the native population. (emphasis mine).
Monday, December 3, 2007
Disrespectful Americans
When MR asked Why don't American kids respect their parents more I was also reminded by an incident when we were in Bangkok last summer. We were in a Skytrain when four teenagers came running up the stairs and burst into our train car. "Dude! I can't believe you did that!" one them said loudly and they proceeded to talk loudly and laugh amongst themselves, mainly about drinking and hwo they got drunk. They didn't seem to notice that Thais are generally reserved and the ride on the Skytrain is almost peaceful and quiet. Is this another example of American boorishness and the stereotype of the "Ugly American" abroad? This leads then to the question: Does disrespect of parents also lead to disrespect of others and other cultures? (Quite a leap for a causal chain to be sure.)
Sunday, December 2, 2007
Economists and their models and why they tend to be skeptics
In Robert Rubins' In An Uncertain World:
The now famous Black-Scholes formula was my first experience with the application of mathematical models to trading, and I formed both an appreciation for and a skepticism about models that I have to this day. ... reality is more complex than models. Models necessarily make assumptions. ... But a trader could easily lose sight of the limitations. Entranced by the model, a trader could easily forget that assumptions are involved and treat it as definitive. (p. 80)
I can see how users of models can be misled by their elegance and in particular their ability to deliver "an answer". However, I believe that economists tend to be skeptical about models (even their own models) because they know the underlying assumptions (or are aware of assumptions) made to simplify reality. In part, I think that this is why they initially tended to be skeptical about climate models and the predictions on climate change. This attitude is changing now with the overwhemning evidence that climate change is real. I think though that where there is a divide now is in mitigating climate change -- the go-slow approach versus the do-all-we-can now. This also reflects the uncertainties about the possibility of gradual climate change versus abrupt climate change.
The now famous Black-Scholes formula was my first experience with the application of mathematical models to trading, and I formed both an appreciation for and a skepticism about models that I have to this day. ... reality is more complex than models. Models necessarily make assumptions. ... But a trader could easily lose sight of the limitations. Entranced by the model, a trader could easily forget that assumptions are involved and treat it as definitive. (p. 80)
I can see how users of models can be misled by their elegance and in particular their ability to deliver "an answer". However, I believe that economists tend to be skeptical about models (even their own models) because they know the underlying assumptions (or are aware of assumptions) made to simplify reality. In part, I think that this is why they initially tended to be skeptical about climate models and the predictions on climate change. This attitude is changing now with the overwhemning evidence that climate change is real. I think though that where there is a divide now is in mitigating climate change -- the go-slow approach versus the do-all-we-can now. This also reflects the uncertainties about the possibility of gradual climate change versus abrupt climate change.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Parents behaving badly
In a somewhat related note to an entry on why American children do not respect their parents, M pointed out the following blog entry from Judith Warner:
Megan Meier, a 13-year-old from Dardenne Prairie, Missouri, killed herself last year after an online relationship she believed she was having with a cute 16-year-old boy named Josh went very sour. What she didn’t know – what her parents would learn six weeks after her death – was that “Josh” was the fictitious creation of Lori Drew, a then-47-year-old neighbor and the mother of one of Megan’s friends.
The story is here in the NYT but what caught my attention was the following in Judith Warner's entry was this:
In part, Levine blames parenting experts for this turn of events.
She blames the self-esteem movement, decades of parenting advice that prized "communication” over limit-setting and safety. She blames the narcissistic needs of parents who want their children to like them at all costs.
This is a pretty strong accusation. I had always wondered about some of the parenting books that I had read and whether there was any basis for the kinds of recommendations that they were making. Some of the recommendations are pretty innocuous for instance, I've read that when babies cry they may be wet. Alternatively, I've also read that babies like being in a wet diaper because it reminds them of being in their mother's womb. I've often thought of relegating these books to the recycle pile.
There are others that are not so innocuous, for instance Adele Faber and Elaine Mazlish's book on How to Talk So Kids Will Listen and Listen So Kids Will Talk is almost a bible in day to day dealings with children (and people in general). Although I give them credit for arguing for limit setting and letting children learn the consequences of their actions, I sometimes wonder if their recommendations have any basis on data (and I emphasize data rather than their personal experiences or anecdotes). No doubt that they have learned through their personal experiences but some times I have to wonder about the "other" cases, i.e. those kids that do not follow the script that is in their book.
The accusation made by Madeline Levine in Warner's blog entry is directed toward the PC/liberal environment that children are in today which in some way makes them not respect their parents. I'm starting to lean in the same direction as well although personally, I am still confused about how to handle the day to day stuff without seeming to be an "enabler" and wanting them to like me. I guess I sometimes think of it as this: I'm here to be their parent not their friend. This begs the question: What is a parent?
Megan Meier, a 13-year-old from Dardenne Prairie, Missouri, killed herself last year after an online relationship she believed she was having with a cute 16-year-old boy named Josh went very sour. What she didn’t know – what her parents would learn six weeks after her death – was that “Josh” was the fictitious creation of Lori Drew, a then-47-year-old neighbor and the mother of one of Megan’s friends.
The story is here in the NYT but what caught my attention was the following in Judith Warner's entry was this:
In part, Levine blames parenting experts for this turn of events.
She blames the self-esteem movement, decades of parenting advice that prized "communication” over limit-setting and safety. She blames the narcissistic needs of parents who want their children to like them at all costs.
This is a pretty strong accusation. I had always wondered about some of the parenting books that I had read and whether there was any basis for the kinds of recommendations that they were making. Some of the recommendations are pretty innocuous for instance, I've read that when babies cry they may be wet. Alternatively, I've also read that babies like being in a wet diaper because it reminds them of being in their mother's womb. I've often thought of relegating these books to the recycle pile.
There are others that are not so innocuous, for instance Adele Faber and Elaine Mazlish's book on How to Talk So Kids Will Listen and Listen So Kids Will Talk is almost a bible in day to day dealings with children (and people in general). Although I give them credit for arguing for limit setting and letting children learn the consequences of their actions, I sometimes wonder if their recommendations have any basis on data (and I emphasize data rather than their personal experiences or anecdotes). No doubt that they have learned through their personal experiences but some times I have to wonder about the "other" cases, i.e. those kids that do not follow the script that is in their book.
The accusation made by Madeline Levine in Warner's blog entry is directed toward the PC/liberal environment that children are in today which in some way makes them not respect their parents. I'm starting to lean in the same direction as well although personally, I am still confused about how to handle the day to day stuff without seeming to be an "enabler" and wanting them to like me. I guess I sometimes think of it as this: I'm here to be their parent not their friend. This begs the question: What is a parent?
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