This was a highly speculative book about possible manned space flight to Titan, one of Saturn's moon. It was written just after the launch of the Cassini probe. It was a little tedious for me, mainly because the technical details and acronyms were just over my head. I thought it was a very realistic description of the effects on the crew of enduring such a long flight (bone loss, isolation). I should have just gone straight to Time Ships instead and I should just stick to Marc Andreesen's list of 10 best SF writers.
Incidentally, this was the second book in a row (coming after X President) that speculated about a possible US-China war. Coming on the heels of the Olympic protests against China, I wonder about the odds in the future. These events are sure to leave a bitter feeling in the Chinese against the West in general.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Monday, April 7, 2008
Unintended consequences
"X President" by Philip Baruth was an interesting exploration of unintended consequences. The book focuses on Bill Clinton's legacy - the interaction of his Tobacco Accord that resulted in a settlement of billions of dollars to states but allowed the companies to export to the rest of the world, and the expansion of Nato to former Warsaw Pact countries.
Sal Hayden, Bill Clinton's biographer in the year 2055 travels back in time with NSC agents coded named "George Stephanapoulos", "James Carville" and "Virginia" (BC's mother's name) to change the unintended consquences as the United States finds itself losing a war with China and Russia.
I thought the book was even more interesting now with the resurgence of Russia. It does make me think twice about what I had said about unintended consequences.
Sal Hayden, Bill Clinton's biographer in the year 2055 travels back in time with NSC agents coded named "George Stephanapoulos", "James Carville" and "Virginia" (BC's mother's name) to change the unintended consquences as the United States finds itself losing a war with China and Russia.
I thought the book was even more interesting now with the resurgence of Russia. It does make me think twice about what I had said about unintended consequences.
Friday, April 4, 2008
Bank of America
Gary Hector's Breaking the Bank and Moira Johnston's Roller Coaster both chronicle the decline of Bank of America in the 1980s. In both cases the predictions of the impending death of Bank America was greatly exaggerated. Hector's book is an easier read, focusing more on the characters and told with more drama than Johnston's book. He also chooses to concentrate more on the early years of Bank of America and tells in more details the fight between AP Giannini and federal regulators. It is evenly divided between the Giannini years and the Clausen and Armacost periods. Johnston's book focuses more on the later years of Clausen and Armacost and does provide more details into Armacosts fights with regulators along with some information of Clausen's time at the World Bank. Her book is a little drier but contains more financial details such as the effect of Continental Illinois and Penn Square Bank on the bank. She is also more generous than Hector when assessing Clausens' return to the bank after the ouster of Armacost. They end with an unspoken theme that Bank of America would not survive the end of the decade.
With perfect hindsight, both underestimated the effects of deregulation, the bad loans of the 1980s, Volcker disinflation, and the changing environment just as much as the banks themselves did in that era. Both hold Wells Fargo, Security Pacific Bank and First Interstate and relatively more successful of the western models than Bank of America. Both books were published in 1990 but did not forsee that by 1992 Bank of America had over come its problems (or perhaps grew out of its problems).
By 1992, Security Pacific would merge with Bank of America and lose its identity. First Interstate was acquired by Wells Fargo in 1995, and which in turn was acquired by Norwest in 1998 which took the Wells Fargo's name. Only in 1998, was Bank of America acquired by NationsBank, so Bank of America survived almost a decade after its predicted demise.
With perfect hindsight, both underestimated the effects of deregulation, the bad loans of the 1980s, Volcker disinflation, and the changing environment just as much as the banks themselves did in that era. Both hold Wells Fargo, Security Pacific Bank and First Interstate and relatively more successful of the western models than Bank of America. Both books were published in 1990 but did not forsee that by 1992 Bank of America had over come its problems (or perhaps grew out of its problems).
By 1992, Security Pacific would merge with Bank of America and lose its identity. First Interstate was acquired by Wells Fargo in 1995, and which in turn was acquired by Norwest in 1998 which took the Wells Fargo's name. Only in 1998, was Bank of America acquired by NationsBank, so Bank of America survived almost a decade after its predicted demise.
Visiting Penang
Some historical insight from CN Traveler:
"Sometime in the 1970s Penang became justly famous for its beaches, and as a result, a great number of resorts and hotels now clutter its shores. But it was the old city, Georgetown, with its fabulous mix of ethnic and national names, that drew me in. It has all the fragrant foreign density of an Asian city but without the overpowering press that can sometimes have one going back to hide in an air-conditioned room. If the waterfront hotels are mostly in the gruesome international style, in the city one can find, as in very few other places, gorgeous streets of old south Chinese shophouses, distinguished here by those five-foot-wide colonnades ("five-foot ways") that Stamford Raffles ruled should provide shade and shelter from the monsoon, as well as an impressive array of south Indian Muslim buildings (mosques, shrines, domestic structures) and mansions reflecting an energetic and charming eclecticism."
Alas, Penang beaches are no more due to rampant overdevelopment, erosian and pollution. Most tourists don't even stop there any more -- if they want beaches they would probably go to Langkawi. Not surprisingly, CN recommends The Eastern & Oriental Hotel - one of these days we might be able to afford it. For an overview of our most recent hotel stay in Penang, see here.
"Sometime in the 1970s Penang became justly famous for its beaches, and as a result, a great number of resorts and hotels now clutter its shores. But it was the old city, Georgetown, with its fabulous mix of ethnic and national names, that drew me in. It has all the fragrant foreign density of an Asian city but without the overpowering press that can sometimes have one going back to hide in an air-conditioned room. If the waterfront hotels are mostly in the gruesome international style, in the city one can find, as in very few other places, gorgeous streets of old south Chinese shophouses, distinguished here by those five-foot-wide colonnades ("five-foot ways") that Stamford Raffles ruled should provide shade and shelter from the monsoon, as well as an impressive array of south Indian Muslim buildings (mosques, shrines, domestic structures) and mansions reflecting an energetic and charming eclecticism."
Alas, Penang beaches are no more due to rampant overdevelopment, erosian and pollution. Most tourists don't even stop there any more -- if they want beaches they would probably go to Langkawi. Not surprisingly, CN recommends The Eastern & Oriental Hotel - one of these days we might be able to afford it. For an overview of our most recent hotel stay in Penang, see here.
What I didn't know about food
From the Washingtonian article:
1. Grey Poupon Dijon mustard may look like a French import, but it's actually made near Allentown, Pennsylvania. Le Sueur peas, with the French fleur-de-lis on the can, come from Le Sueur, Minnesota.
2. California has 500,000 more milk cows than Wisconsin, and it produces 15 times more fresh peaches than Georgia, the Peach State. More than half of the country's mushrooms come from around the little Pennsylvania town of Kennett Square, southwest of Philadelphia. We now import more garlic from China than we buy from growers in California. Only a quarter of the blue crabs harvested in the United States come from the Chesapeake Bay.
3. More than 90 percent of Florida's oranges go into juice.
4. About half the grapes are made into wine, just under 40 percent are marketed in dried form as raisins, and only about 12 percent are sold as table grapes.
5. The unfortunately named rape plant, whose seeds had been pressed into an industrial-quality oil for years, is grown in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Since the 1970s, after scientists made genetic adjustments to reduce a fatty acid in the seed, the oil has been marketed for cooking under the made-up name "canola oil."
6. The fuzzy brown fruits were originally called "Chinese gooseberries," but importers were worried that Americans would shun them because the name suggested a link to a communist country. In fact, the fruit was mostly grown in New Zealand, so they changed the name to kiwi, after New Zealand's national bird.
7. About half our peanuts go into peanut butter, which is fine, because lots of fruit goes into jelly.
Much, much more in the fascinating article.
1. Grey Poupon Dijon mustard may look like a French import, but it's actually made near Allentown, Pennsylvania. Le Sueur peas, with the French fleur-de-lis on the can, come from Le Sueur, Minnesota.
2. California has 500,000 more milk cows than Wisconsin, and it produces 15 times more fresh peaches than Georgia, the Peach State. More than half of the country's mushrooms come from around the little Pennsylvania town of Kennett Square, southwest of Philadelphia. We now import more garlic from China than we buy from growers in California. Only a quarter of the blue crabs harvested in the United States come from the Chesapeake Bay.
3. More than 90 percent of Florida's oranges go into juice.
4. About half the grapes are made into wine, just under 40 percent are marketed in dried form as raisins, and only about 12 percent are sold as table grapes.
5. The unfortunately named rape plant, whose seeds had been pressed into an industrial-quality oil for years, is grown in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Since the 1970s, after scientists made genetic adjustments to reduce a fatty acid in the seed, the oil has been marketed for cooking under the made-up name "canola oil."
6. The fuzzy brown fruits were originally called "Chinese gooseberries," but importers were worried that Americans would shun them because the name suggested a link to a communist country. In fact, the fruit was mostly grown in New Zealand, so they changed the name to kiwi, after New Zealand's national bird.
7. About half our peanuts go into peanut butter, which is fine, because lots of fruit goes into jelly.
Much, much more in the fascinating article.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
What I didn't know about Pasta
From the Washingtonian magazine, an article on pasta and compares it to pasta in Italy. Some things I never knew:
1. In Italy, pasta rarely serves as a main course. The exceptions are spaghetti alla carbonara and lasagna di carnevale.
2. The union of a pasta with certain meats, or the use of a tomato-sauced pasta as a garnish to veal pizzaiola or shrimp fra diavolo , is an invention of Italian-American restaurants.
3. Fettuccine all’Alfredo is a product of Hollywood: In 1920, Douglas Fairbanks and Mary Pickford, the greatest film stars of their time, celebrated their honeymoon in Rome. There they fell in love with a dish of fresh noodles tossed with butter and Parmesan by Alfredo di Lelio at his namesake restaurant. They returned for the dish every day they were there. Back home in Hollywood, the stars raved about Fettuccine all’Alfredo. Recipes for it soon were appearing in print.
The problem was that the butter widely available in this country was not rich enough in fat to produce the creamy sauce of a true Fettuccine all’Alfredo. Whipping cream made its way into the formula, then hucksters began using flour to stretch the cream. In time, cookbooks spread the notion that Fettuccine all’Alfredo was a dish of fresh noodles awash in cream.
4. Today you will not find authentic Fettuccine all’Alfredo on the set menu of any of Washington’s Italian restaurants.
1. In Italy, pasta rarely serves as a main course. The exceptions are spaghetti alla carbonara and lasagna di carnevale.
2. The union of a pasta with certain meats, or the use of a tomato-sauced pasta as a garnish to veal pizzaiola or shrimp fra diavolo , is an invention of Italian-American restaurants.
3. Fettuccine all’Alfredo is a product of Hollywood: In 1920, Douglas Fairbanks and Mary Pickford, the greatest film stars of their time, celebrated their honeymoon in Rome. There they fell in love with a dish of fresh noodles tossed with butter and Parmesan by Alfredo di Lelio at his namesake restaurant. They returned for the dish every day they were there. Back home in Hollywood, the stars raved about Fettuccine all’Alfredo. Recipes for it soon were appearing in print.
The problem was that the butter widely available in this country was not rich enough in fat to produce the creamy sauce of a true Fettuccine all’Alfredo. Whipping cream made its way into the formula, then hucksters began using flour to stretch the cream. In time, cookbooks spread the notion that Fettuccine all’Alfredo was a dish of fresh noodles awash in cream.
4. Today you will not find authentic Fettuccine all’Alfredo on the set menu of any of Washington’s Italian restaurants.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Charter schools in DC
Brooke Lea Foster had an interesting charter school story in the Washingtonian:
1. Closing of non-performing charter schools will introduce survivorship bias into the data on school performance.
2. If the charter school board is quick to close non-performing charters and think that this is the best way to approach it, why do they not do this with public schools (or try to introduce more accountability)? Possible reasons? Unions, bureaucracy?
3. The story doesn't go into what happens to the kids in charter schools that were closed.
4. Most charter schools are small and perhaps this is another "small school" theory. See here, here, and here. The Gates Foundation has sponsored some studies on small schools. See here. Unfortunately, the evidence does not seem compelling for small schools. It's work on charter schools is through the NewSchools Venture Fund but so far I don't see any studies it has done on charter schools.
5. MR summarizes Caroline Hoxby's work on charter schools.
6. An archive of some charter school studies along with ratings of the studies are here.
1. Closing of non-performing charter schools will introduce survivorship bias into the data on school performance.
2. If the charter school board is quick to close non-performing charters and think that this is the best way to approach it, why do they not do this with public schools (or try to introduce more accountability)? Possible reasons? Unions, bureaucracy?
3. The story doesn't go into what happens to the kids in charter schools that were closed.
4. Most charter schools are small and perhaps this is another "small school" theory. See here, here, and here. The Gates Foundation has sponsored some studies on small schools. See here. Unfortunately, the evidence does not seem compelling for small schools. It's work on charter schools is through the NewSchools Venture Fund but so far I don't see any studies it has done on charter schools.
5. MR summarizes Caroline Hoxby's work on charter schools.
6. An archive of some charter school studies along with ratings of the studies are here.
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