Here's one thanks to Marginal Revolution:
Should the IMF behave like a Sovereign Wealth Fund?
"Retrenching now is tantamount to downsizing a fire department when there is a low incidence of fire," he said ...
Here's another one of my own:
1. What if building codes have now been upgraded so that the probability of fire is now lower?
2. Or what if building codes have not been upgraded, but the material used for houses is so poorly regulated that a simple spark can cause such a large fire that swamps any ability of any fire department to control the fire? That all the fire department can do is just to make sure the flames don't burn down the fire department?
3. Or what if Mrs. O'Leary has let too many cows run amok?